Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
